New findings from tech strategist firm Juniper Research project that by 2031, the number of agentic commerce users globally could reach 1.3 billion — up from less than 300 million in 2026.
The report also forecasts that total agentic commerce transaction value will rise to $3.5tn in five years’ time, increasing from just $8bn in 2026.
The Agentic Commerce Market report says that a number of factors are driving this trend, from the emergence of direct support from major retailers and increased availability of agentic payment infrastructure to growing comfort levels with AI systems, although presently, user familiarity and trust are low.
Indeed, research from digital payments company Checkout.com in June identified a consumer trust gap, with 24% of consumers claiming they will never delegate purchases to AI, and 27% sharing that they trust “no organisation” to operate an AI shopping agent.
In terms of what’s propping up the payment infrastructure, according to the research, card payments are, at present, leading within agentic commerce; however, this trend might not endure, according to Nick Maynard, VP of Research.
“Cards increasingly support agent payments through tokenisation, but card domination within agentic commerce is not in the market’s best interests, given how important payment preferences are within eCommerce,“ noted Maynard.
Indeed, the VP added that, if agentic commerce fails to support local payments, the market will “limit its overall growth potential.”
Alongside this, it’s not been all smooth sailing for some providers and their plans. Back in March, OpenAI pulled back from its in-app purchasing plans, with industry experts arguing that AI’s real role in commerce isn’t the transaction.
But the journey’s not over yet. Google recently released new features for its Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), agentic commerce launches and partnerships are being rolled out, and investment continues to roll in.
What will this mean for affiliate and performance as the technology matures and consumers increase usage? The industry is still working it out.
