AI continues to be the word of the moment, both inside the industry and out. In just a short time, it’s transformed everything from information access to purchasing paths.
The APMA’s recently launched, three-part report, The New Rules of Discovery: How Affiliate Marketing Can Thrive in the Age of AI, examines what this means for the consumer journey, measuring AI influence and how commercial relationships, attribution models, and partnership strategies adapt to this new AI-driven ecosystem.
The report, written by James Bentley, Chair of the APMA AI Taskforce and Founder of Numerical, outlines that conversational AI has now reached “mass-market scale.”
Indeed, according to Which?, 51% of UK adults now use AI search tools to find products, services, and advice online — a figure that rises to 75% among 18 to 34-year-olds.
Open web under pressure
In tandem, the paper notes there is evidence the open web is under pressure, with reports from Press Gazette, McKinsey and the Pew Research Center revealing risks to and declines in organic search referrals, web traffic and clickthrough rates.
This is echoed across some affiliate publishers. In an APMA survey of 67 publishers in Spring 2026, 42% said that Google organic search traffic had declined, with 46% reporting that AI search had "already negatively affected" traffic or earnings.
According to the report, while these challenges, whether traffic declines, new tech launches or search evolution, have surfaced before, taken together, a broader shift is happening, with a question mark raised around how to measure influence when it's less visible.
A three-layer framework
Here, the report outlines a three-layer framework for AI attribution, built on:
- Retrieval, which shows whether AI systems have accessed the content.
- Citation, which shows whether that content appeared in, or helped inform, an AI-generated answer.
- Outcome, which shows whether a user journey can be connected to a “measurable commercial event.”
The report notes that, while together, the layers provide a "common language" for influence beyond the click, no one layer proves value independently, and no single metric will solve AI attribution.
“Shared definitions, transparent methodologies and comparable evidence will allow brands, publishers and networks to experiment with confidence rather than relying on assumptions,” the report says.
According to the report, as measurement matures, these foundations will become “increasingly important for commercial decision-making.”
“Because once influence can be evidenced, the conversation naturally shifts from measurement to remuneration.”
New commission structures emerge
When it comes to remuneration and the commercial models underpinning it, the report says, it is “unlikely” there will be a single answer. However, new commission structures have emerged, including fixed-fee partnerships, licensing agreements, visibility-based rewards, retrieval tracking and hybrid commissioning.
Commenting on the findings, Bentley said that while the affiliate industry has always adapted to technological changes, AI represents the "next major evolution." However, this time, the challenge isn’t just reaching consumers differently.
“It’s recognising and rewarding influence when the traditional click is no longer the only measure of value,” says Bentley.
As the landscape continues to evolve, the APMA shared that the publication will become a “living document,” with new research, best practices and commercial approaches being added as the landscape evolves.
Presently, the APMA report advises those working within the affiliate channel to implement the three-layer framework as shared language, turn visibility into commercial evidence and start testing hybrid reward models.
Alongside this, the report adds that publishers should protect and price content use, build attribution into agentic commerce, and treat AI advertising as “both media and measurement.”
