In January, February and March, brands tend to downplay the possibility of sustained demand throughout the quarter. The opposite of the Golden Quarter that precedes it. Partly, this is because Q1 consumer intent gets reduced to a story of austerity, restraint and dry January.
We wanted to know whether that assumption holds true, so in September we surveyed 7,542 Reward Gateway|Edenred users, an audience of employed, offer-aware consumers, about their financial mindset, wellbeing priorities and spending plans for the quarter ahead.
The answers we gathered show what people most want from the start of the year, which categories need an offer, which need inspiration, how offers create demand rather than just cutting the price, and when to be in market. Here’s my take on what they could mean for your brand.
1. Lead with anticipation
What people want from the start of the year turns out to be more than the fitness and diet resolutions most brands plan around. As many as 40% say having something enjoyable to look forward to is their single biggest wellbeing priority.
The payoff is emotional too. Asked what a planned or booked purchase gives them, nearly half say it lifts their mood or delivers quality time with people they care about.
The clear message is that your creatives built around anticipation, mood and shared experience is likely to work harder than simple new year resolution messaging.
2. Caution concentrates spend
The idea that everyone is stretched in January, of course, has some truth to it, because 38% of respondents say their finances straight after Christmas are struggling.
On the flip side, however, less than one in ten say they aren't planning to spend on their wellbeing this next Q1 and nearly two thirds will keep their wellbeing spend unchanged, protect one or two priorities, or actively look for offers so they can keep spending on what matters.
Yes, financial caution makes people more selective, but it doesn’t necessarily switch spending off. For brands, that means your offers that let people protect the one or two things that matter to them are likely to convert better than a blanket discount aimed at everyone equally.
3. The undecided majority is the main audience
For a quarter so associated with plans and resolutions, relatively few people have firm ones. We found that 27% expect to spend but haven't decided on what, and the largest single group, 38%, say they'd spend if the right offer appeared. That means the majority of the audience at 65% is still to be won.
These consumers aren’t a group to pick up once the committed buyers have converted; they are the bulk of the market. And it means that brands with the right offer in front of them while that decision is still open stand to win spend that would otherwise go elsewhere.
4. Offers do more than cut the price
For me, this is the finding with the biggest implications for how we plan offers. Only 23% say an offer simply reduces the cost of something they had already decided to buy. Most describe a wider range of effects. For example, 38% say it encourages them to act sooner rather than waiting, 35% say it makes something affordable that they couldn't otherwise justify and 26% say it lets them choose a better or more expensive option.
What we should all take from this is that most of an offer's value sits in acceleration, trade-up and brand switching. So used well, offers generate revenue that wouldn't otherwise exist, rather than simply reducing margin on demand that was already there.
5. Sweeten the plan, or create it
Categories don't all need the same thing from an offer. Holidays and travel and short breaks, hotels or spa are the most offer-dependent categories in the survey, and they have among the fewest consumers with no plan at all. The plan is largely already there, and the offer decides whether and when it gets booked.
Hobbies, eating out and entertainment meanwhile sit at the other end, with more than a third of consumers in each having no plan yet. These merchants need inspiration and occasion-building alongside any offer, because a discount can't create a plan that doesn't yet exist.
On mechanics, a substantial percentage discount remains the dominant trust signal at 57%, almost double the next option, a fixed amount off (34%). An exclusive price, a free extra or upgrade and a bundle form a second tier at 24% to 28%. Cost-spreading, cashback and loyalty points matter least overall, though they're likely to carry more weight in higher-value, deferred categories such as travel.
Activate early
All told, the fundamentals of Q1 spending are healthy. People want something to look forward to, they protect the spend that supports it even when money is tight, and most haven't yet decided where that spend will go. I firmly believe that's an opportunity brands can and should plan for now.
Get in touch at retailsupport@rewardgateway.com to request a copy of the full report and start planning your Q1 activity today.
